Sat, Mar 12, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Florida Panthers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 111 | 24 | 02 | 0 | 426 |
| FLA | 112 | 18 | 28 | 01 | 2 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22FLAReilly SmithAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:36PHINick CousinsAssists: Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 13:16PHIRyan WhitePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Matt Read · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:34FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:28PHIMichael RafflAssists: Evgeny Medvedev · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 8:24FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 9:29FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jakub Kindl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:05PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.02 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 3. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:15FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:10PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:46FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20FLAGarrett Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:09PHIMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:11PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Interference2 min
- P3 14:27FLAKyle Rau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:02FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Couturier – Raffl12:48
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:47
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Read – Cousins – Laughton8:51
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn12:50
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas16:40
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Medvedev10:41
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz14:02
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:37
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Shaw6:54
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:19
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Hudler – Bjugstad – Rau8:50
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Petrovic12:17
xG 1.01–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson13:06
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).