Sat, Mar 12, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 29 | 015 | 237 |
| WPG | 09 | 114 | 27 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:02COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:55COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 16:29WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 7:26WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P3 9:01WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Scott Kosmachuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:28WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:55WPGScott Kosmachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 7:20COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:37COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:00COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Boedker – MacKinnon12:57
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Matthias – Martinsen9:10
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille5:06
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko13:06
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Johnson12:03
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie15:00
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Redmond – Gelinas8:59
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Lowry – Kosmachuk9:31
xG 1.30–0.23 (85%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele8:29
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Halischuk – Lipon – Copp6:00
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele2:05
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:33
xG 1.25–0.67 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Myers – Trouba18:49
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot6:12
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).