Sat, Mar 12, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 313 | 010 | 13 | 536 |
| DAL | 118 | 112 | 27 | 01 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47STLTroy BrouwerAssists: Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 11:06DALCody EakinAssists: Jamie Benn, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:37STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 2:38DALJason SpezzaAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 10:19STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:14STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 6:02DALJason SpezzaAssists: Ales Hemsky, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 18:48DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–4
- OT 2:11STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:25DALAles Hemsky: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:38STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:21DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P2 9:21STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:53STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:44DALAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:21DALPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:53STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Stastny – Fabbri10:37
xG 1.19–0.78 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:20
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 1–2
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin10:46
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:10
xG 1.26–0.53 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:43
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Parayko11:05
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Seguin – Nichushkin11:29
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Ritchie4:55
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin8:57
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Benn – Eakin – Ritchie2:01
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Johns2:13
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Russell11:42
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Johns – Oleksiak2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).