Sun, Mar 13, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 113 | 39 | 437 |
| CBJ | 05 | 016 | 016 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:29TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 8:45TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 10:54TBLSteven StamkosSHAssists: Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 14:39TBLOndrej PalatSHAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:21CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:03TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38CBJDalton Prout: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:38CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38TBLNikita Kucherov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 9:17TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:56TBLRyan Callahan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:21CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:21CBJRene Bourque: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CBJMatt Calvert: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Kucherov4:09
xG 0.64–0.11 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn3:47
xG 0.20–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Namestnikov11:42
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Blunden – Brown5:51
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle6:22
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Hedman3:05
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:41
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg6:28
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Calvert – Karlsson4:13
xG 0.01–0.04 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Saad – Wennberg3:00
xG 0.05–0.10 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Jones11:53
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef10:38
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Prout – Murray10:31
xG 0.16–0.76 (18%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).