Mon, Mar 14, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 4, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 09 | 218 | 435 |
| CGY | 29 | 314 | 29 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Lance Bouma, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:33STLScottie UpshallAssists: Colton Parayko, Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:14STLPaul StastnyAssists: Troy Brouwer, Robby Fabbri · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 16:42CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 5:13CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 11:03CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 13:37CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jyrki Jokipakka · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 3:28STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 13:31STLPaul StastnyAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 16:49CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–6
- P3 19:25CGYMichael FrolikENAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:29CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:58STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:18CGYGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 10:18STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYJosh Jooris: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:18CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:54CGYMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Paajarvi7:04
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:00
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri10:44
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:20
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:46
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:35
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko2:49
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Bouma – Jooris8:32
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Agostino10:28
xG 0.76–0.90 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bollig – Hathaway8:27
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:23
xG 0.36–0.77 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Giordano16:56
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Wideman – Nakladal11:53
xG 0.74–0.90 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Hamilton13:15
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).