Mon, Mar 14, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
New Jersey Devils 1, Anaheim Ducks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 012 | 16 | 07 | 125 |
| ANA | 06 | 415 | 36 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:32ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Tip-in, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 1:09NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Tyler Kennedy, John Moore · Slap, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 3:44ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 5:30ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Josh Manson, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 9:56ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 2:20ANACorey PerryAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 6:16ANANick RitchieAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 7:13ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Simon Despres · Slap, 0.00 xG1–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:49ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:04ANARyan Garbutt: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:05NJDKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:44ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:51NJDAndy Greene: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20NJDStephen Gionta: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:54ANANick Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Henrique – Smith-Pelly11:31
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Gionta – Farnham7:38
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Sislo – Blandisi – Kalinin12:13
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher11:28
xG 0.39–0.77 (34%)attempts 11–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Moore17:32
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 17–18goals 0–3
- Warsofsky – Helgeson13:51
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:55
xG 0.40–0.91 (31%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:00
xG 0.87–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 4–0
- Horcoff – Garbutt – Ritchie11:36
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Perry – McGinn – Rakell12:52
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Santorelli – Perron10:55
xG 0.34–0.62 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Fowler15:59
xG 1.19–0.56 (68%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Holzer – Lindholm14:22
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Stoner – Manson16:35
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).