Tue, Mar 15, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 08 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 126 |
| PIT | 110 | 011 | 06 | 07 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:51PITChris KunitzAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 14:35NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 5. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:47PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:44NYIBrian Strait: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:36PITTom Kuhnhackl: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48PITTrevor Daley: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:25NYIThomas Hickey: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:17PITNick Bonino: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Okposo – Tavares11:06
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Strome7:07
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey2:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:51
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Strait – Hickey8:50
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:49
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:58
xG 0.47–0.61 (44%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl10:04
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fehr – Sheary – Simon2:39
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin10:12
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist11:34
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz10:15
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin12:37
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin2:54
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).