Tue, Mar 15, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 29 | 112 | 436 |
| MTL | 011 | 17 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:46FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Brian Campbell, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:10FLANick BjugstadPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 12:45FLAJiri HudlerAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 17:23MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 11:32FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:27MTLMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:27FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:20MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 2:12FLAReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:59MTLJacob de la Rose: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:18MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:18FLAGarrett Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:59MTLDarren Dietz: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:52MTLDarren Dietz: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Bjugstad – Shaw11:10
xG 1.06–0.07 (94%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg5:50
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Smith – Trocheck12:49
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:56
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Kampfer12:14
xG 0.91–0.40 (69%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Campbell – Petrovic18:21
xG 1.09–0.70 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad16:14
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Danault – de la Rose7:12
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto12:47
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Lessio – Matteau – McCarron10:12
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Mitchell – Byron14:07
xG 0.32–0.81 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Barberio16:18
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Bartley – Pateryn11:52
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn3:01
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).