Tue, Mar 15, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 011 | 15 | 01 | 225 |
| OTT | 07 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Justin Fontaine, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:38OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 5:14MINRyan CarterAssists: Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:52OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 4:29OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Chris Wideman, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:22OTTRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:22MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:11OTTDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 15:34OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:05MINRyan Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:43MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:23MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle13:41
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Vanek – Schroeder – Granlund8:58
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine8:59
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Stoll – Jones – Carter7:47
xG 0.04–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin3:51
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin9:09
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:37
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau12:44
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Chiasson – Dzingel3:12
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Paul – Lazar6:39
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad5:33
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci13:49
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci3:27
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kostka – Wideman8:28
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).