Wed, Mar 16, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 210 | 07 | 11 | 323 |
| BUF | 115 | 010 | 113 | 05 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:17BUFZach BogosianPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:47MTLGreg PaterynAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:57MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 11:56BUFMarcus FolignoSHAssists: David Legwand, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 3:15MTLPaul ByronGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (26)
- P1 14:16MTLVictor Bartley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58BUFJosh Gorges: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:58MTLNathan Beaulieu: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:28BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:28MTLTomas Plekanec: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:09MTLGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:48BUFCarlo Colaiacovo: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:20BUFMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20MTLMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20MTLMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:31MTLNathan Beaulieu: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:31BUFJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:31BUFMatt Moulson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30MTLMichael McCarron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30BUFZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30MTLMichael McCarron: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30BUFRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:24BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P3 1:24BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:03BUFEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:03BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:03MTLAndrei Markov: Illegal check to head2 min
- OT 2:58MTLAndrei Markov: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto8:16
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk2:28
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Danault – de la Rose5:50
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Lessio – McCarron6:20
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin8:19
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Emelin – Bartley2:48
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Emelin – Beaulieu5:53
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Reinhart – Eichel9:15
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:38
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Deslauriers7:40
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – O'Reilly3:12
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe12:39
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pysyk – McCabe2:30
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pysyk7:41
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).