Wed, Mar 16, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 117 | 14 | 329 |
| CHI | 112 | 110 | 04 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Artem Anisimov, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 18:48PHIRyan WhitePPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:58CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 13:02PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 9:53PHIRadko GudasGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:36CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:54PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:01PHIChris VandeVelde: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:06CHIArtemi Panarin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30PHIChris VandeVelde: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Shaw
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Couturier – Raffl12:31
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:11
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn10:34
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Read – Cousins – Laughton8:36
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas13:11
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere16:35
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz14:59
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Toews – Kane11:31
xG 0.63–0.26 (70%)attempts 15–4goals 1–2
- Hossa – Anisimov – Panarin11:41
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Shaw – Teravainen8:54
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Weise – Mashinter4:33
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk15:24
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk2:22
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).