Wed, Mar 16, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 4, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 17 | 213 | 428 |
| EDM | 28 | 314 | 15 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 13:32EDMTaylor HallAssists: Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 14:17STLDavid BackesAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:00STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Joel Edmundson, Jori Lehtera · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:42EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:05EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mark Letestu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 18:09EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 0:58STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–5
- P3 5:48STLDavid BackesAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Dmitrij Jaskin · Snap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 19:42EDMMark LetestuENAssists: Matt Hendricks, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:33EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:07STLJoel Edmundson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 8:16EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:17STLKyle Brodziak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:04STLRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37STLJaden Schwartz: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42EDMIiro Pakarinen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:48STLJori Lehtera: Holding2 min
- P3 9:48EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:04STLTroy Brouwer: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:04STLTroy Brouwer: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Jaskin6:39
xG 0.75–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 2–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri2:09
xG 0.21–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Paajarvi3:06
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri9:11
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson9:53
xG 0.55–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko9:59
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk2:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov7:18
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian3:56
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Pakarinen – Draisaitl7:33
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Maroon – Eberle – McDavid11:51
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Fayne12:47
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Clendening – Nurse9:22
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Oesterle11:47
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).