Thu, Mar 17, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 214 | 08 | 011 | 233 |
| PIT | 122 | 29 | 117 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42CARPhillip Di GiuseppeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 5:10CARRiley NashAssists: Jeff Skinner, Chris Terry · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 13:53PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 12:16PITPhil KesselAssists: Carl Hagelin, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:59PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 13:20PITNick BoninoAssists: Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 17:51PITBryan Rust: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:06CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:06PITBryan Rust: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:54PITNick Bonino: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:14PITCarl Hagelin: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:14CARRyan Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52CARNoah Hanifin: Interference2 min
- P3 7:10PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:48CARVictor Rask: Interference2 min
- P3 13:43PITTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 14:15CARJordan Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:24PITPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm10:11
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Terry – Nash7:04
xG 0.18–0.51 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe8:50
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- McClement – Malone – Sutter5:46
xG 0.05–1.11 (4%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Jordan – Murphy11:45
xG 0.51–0.75 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
- Pesce – Hanifin10:30
xG 0.73–1.08 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Slavin12:51
xG 0.22–1.16 (16%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin8:22
xG 1.44–0.24 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:12
xG 0.92–0.48 (66%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Fehr – Sheary – Simon5:06
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl7:21
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta15:25
xG 1.99–0.48 (80%)attempts 27–10goals 0–1
- Cole – Schultz9:43
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Daley – Dumoulin12:15
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).