Fri, Mar 18, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 212 | 211 | 436 |
| WPG | 011 | 010 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:56CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Michal Rozsival · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 17:22CHIMarian HossaAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 3:06CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 4:51CHITomas FleischmannAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:58CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:05WPGTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 6:58WPGBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:58CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:11CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:37CHIAndrew Desjardins: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:37WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:52CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Weise – Teravainen8:07
xG 1.29–0.03 (98%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Ladd – Toews – Kane4:47
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Desjardins – Panik – Shaw10:25
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hossa – Anisimov – Panarin4:20
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson16:50
xG 1.22–0.46 (73%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk11:27
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson11:59
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Petan2:41
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele9:35
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry2:12
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perreault – Burmistrov – Dano10:17
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Trouba16:37
xG 0.34–0.65 (34%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Postma – Chiarot10:06
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:11
xG 0.43–0.97 (31%)attempts 12–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).