Fri, Mar 18, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 0, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 016 | 016 | 040 |
| EDM | 08 | 19 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:10EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 6:03EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Iiro Pakarinen · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:09VANDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:50EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:58EDMMark Fayne: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:47EDMAdam Clendening: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:40EDMGriffin Reinhart: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40VANSven Baertschi: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40VANJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40VANJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34VANMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Burrows – McCann8:51
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Grenier9:21
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Horvat – Virtanen8:38
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Vey – Etem – Baertschi8:32
xG 0.18–0.80 (18%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tryamkin14:36
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski2:14
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Bartkowski – Pedan11:15
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid10:39
xG 1.53–0.92 (62%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Kassian – Pakarinen2:16
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Pakarinen – Draisaitl8:17
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov6:40
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReinhart – Oesterle14:57
xG 1.38–0.90 (61%)attempts 11–25goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Nurse2:34
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Clendening – Nurse11:43
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).