Sat, Mar 19, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 112 | 19 | 05 | 1 | 233 |
| MIN | 08 | 115 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:37MINDavid JonesAssists: Erik Haula, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 17:05CARChris TerryAssists: Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 0:16MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 13:09CARJordan StaalAssists: Elias Lindholm, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
- 2. CAR Brody Sutter stopped
- 3. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 4. CAR Riley Nash scored
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. CAR Chris Terry stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:59MINMike Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:01CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 6:08CARRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 8:13MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Terry – Nash9:02
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask2:53
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Sutter7:17
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe10:47
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Slavin19:23
xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Pesce – Hanifin14:12
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Jordan – Carrick14:35
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJones – Haula – Niederreiter13:30
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle13:40
xG 0.65–0.14 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine4:20
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Parise – Schroeder – Granlund9:17
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:14
xG 1.15–0.64 (64%)attempts 22–18goals 2–1
- Scandella – Brodin20:13
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dumba6:06
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).