Sat, Mar 19, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 0, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 08 | 09 | 030 |
| OTT | 117 | 114 | 313 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 12:01OTTCurtis LazarSHAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 2:05OTTMarc MethotAssists: Mike Hoffman, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 3:18OTTAlex ChiassonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P3 17:52OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:24OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:25OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:25MTLMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:50OTTBobby Ryan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:50MTLTomas Plekanec: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:30OTTScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:37MTLAlexei Emelin: Charging2 min
- P3 1:26OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:45MTLPaul Byron: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:32OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lessio – McCarron3:25
xG 0.42–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto9:00
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Lessio – McCarron7:15
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Matteau3:54
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Dietz12:03
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu13:23
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin14:27
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Paul – Lazar9:25
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad9:28
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau9:49
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ryan – Puempel7:12
xG 0.28–0.94 (23%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:29
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci13:28
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Kostka – Wideman11:23
xG 0.37–0.71 (34%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).