Sat, Mar 19, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 010 | 07 | 027 |
| DAL | 011 | 114 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:07DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 7:41DALPatrick EavesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 17:06DALAles HemskyENAssists: Antoine Roussel, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.60 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:12NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03NYIBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:56DALAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:31NYIJohnny Boychuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48DALColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKulemin – Lee – Prince9:23
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nelson – Strome11:24
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:17
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:48
xG 0.30–0.98 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Leddy2:24
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Strait – Leddy2:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy10:08
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Faksa10:36
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Nichushkin2:44
xG 0.46–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour5:15
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Ritchie2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg11:42
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Oduya – Johns14:49
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 24–21goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Russell13:01
xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).