Sat, Mar 19, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Boston Bruins 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 113 | 010 | 128 |
| LAK | 113 | 15 | 02 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:09LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Luke Schenn, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:40LAKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:46BOSTyler RandellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:01BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01LAKDwight King: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:57BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:37LAKJake Muzzin: Concealing puck2 min
- P2 19:26LAKVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:29LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:53BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand10:01
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Randell – Acciari5:08
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:26
xG 0.13–0.32 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner9:19
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Liles9:06
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Miller7:14
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug9:35
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Clifford7:48
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- King – Toffoli – Shore2:38
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – Pearson6:30
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli4:05
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – McNabb11:06
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez13:06
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty16:37
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).