Sun, Mar 20, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 26 | 06 | 218 |
| PIT | 210 | 112 | 39 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:33PITBryan RustAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 9:59PITTrevor DaleyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:18WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Justin Williams, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 15:12WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 15:54PITTom KuhnhacklGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 3:46PITMatt CullenAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 7:18PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 13:05PITJustin SchultzPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.06 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 11:56WSHDaniel Winnik: Interference2 min
- P1 15:28WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:55PITIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:04WSHMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04WSHMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:22PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:08WSHJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:39WSHMike Weber: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 10:39WSHMike Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:39PITTom Kuhnhackl: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:39PITTom Kuhnhackl: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:07PITCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:25WSHDaniel Winnik: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:25WSHDaniel Winnik: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Williams – Johansson7:04
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky6:33
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson6:15
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle7:04
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Schmidt4:04
xG 0.03–0.10 (20%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Weber – Schmidt6:45
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Orpik – Orlov10:15
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 1–3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:17
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 3–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist10:19
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Fehr – Sundqvist – Sheary6:43
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin6:52
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta15:24
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Daley – Maatta2:06
xG 0.04–0.02 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin11:28
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).