Sun, Mar 20, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 29 | 216 | 435 |
| MTL | 06 | 08 | 18 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:06CGYJoe ColborneAssists: TJ Brodie, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 19:03CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Josh Jooris · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 10:38CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 12:21CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Joe Colborne, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–0
- P3 12:57MTLMichael McCarronAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:53MTLDarren Dietz: Holding2 min
- P3 9:40MTLMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:40CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:14MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:09MTLAlexei Emelin: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:42CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Ferland – Bennett8:57
xG 0.44–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma10:46
xG 0.45–0.12 (78%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Jooris12:14
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Hathaway10:57
xG 0.11–0.56 (17%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Nakladal13:43
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton16:25
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Brodie – Jokipakka19:14
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lessio – de la Rose4:22
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Mitchell – Eller11:57
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Brown – Matteau – de la Rose4:40
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lessio – Danault – McCarron6:50
xG 0.11–0.31 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin20:53
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu16:11
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Dietz – Hanley13:34
xG 0.08–0.54 (12%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).