Sun, Mar 20, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 210 | 016 | 01 | 1 | 334 |
| CHI | 013 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:50MINErik HaulaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Justin Fontaine · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:04MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 8:38CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:21CHIRichard PanikAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Duncan Keith · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 5. CHI Artemi Panarin stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:15MINZach Parise: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:55CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:44CHIArtemi Panarin: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:48CHIArtem Anisimov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Niederreiter – Fontaine9:37
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Parise – Jones – Granlund8:47
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle2:40
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:56
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Scandella – Brodin15:50
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dumba9:57
xG 0.54–1.27 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Panik – Shaw10:27
xG 1.20–0.36 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Weise – Teravainen9:07
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin12:18
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hossa – Ladd – Toews12:33
xG 0.15–0.55 (21%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson3:17
xG 0.98–0.08 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:54
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook3:15
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).