Sun, Mar 20, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 29 | 14 | 325 |
| EDM | 08 | 07 | 213 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:19COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Carl Soderberg, Shawn Matthias · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 11:31COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 2:53EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 9:09COLBlake ComeauPPGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:52EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:29COLMikko Rantanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:57COLMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:29EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:05COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:42EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:42COLAndreas Martinsen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grigorenko won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Boedker – Grigorenko10:54
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Matthias – Landeskog10:02
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Skille – Rantanen6:41
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen12:22
xG 0.66–0.98 (40%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson14:22
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Holden – Bigras2:37
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras2:18
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid12:00
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian4:44
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Pakarinen – Draisaitl5:22
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Hall – Yakupov – Draisaitl3:12
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReinhart – Oesterle15:03
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Sekera – Nurse2:57
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Clendening – Nurse11:34
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).