Tue, Mar 22, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 211 | 013 | 335 |
| MTL | 111 | 25 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:30ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:55ANACorey PerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 8:58MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:14MTLMike BrownAssists: Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 11:59ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 8:13MTLLucas LessioGWGAssists: Mike Brown, Darren Dietz · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:54ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:58MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:58ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:59MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59MTLTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Garbutt – Ritchie5:52
xG 0.50–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Pirri11:26
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – McGinn2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:16
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Despres8:10
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Holzer – Fowler7:36
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Despres – Fowler7:48
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Matteau – McCarron9:44
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Lessio – de la Rose6:30
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 2–1
- Byron – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk13:55
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Plekanec – Mitchell – Eller15:01
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin21:28
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Dietz – Hanley11:24
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Beaulieu15:53
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).