Tue, Mar 22, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 38 | 04 | 110 | 422 |
| OTT | 011 | 18 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32WSHMike RichardsAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 12:22WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 14:37WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 12:33OTTChris WidemanAssists: Mike Hoffman, Michael Kostka · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:27OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:47WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Karl Alzner, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:22OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:04WSHMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:01WSHDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:34WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:54OTTRyan Dzingel: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:06WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Johansson10:51
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson7:38
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky2:43
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky6:12
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner16:15
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Chorney – Weber10:31
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Orlov16:46
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad3:45
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad5:55
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau10:48
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Puempel – Paul – Lazar11:07
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKostka – Ceci2:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wideman3:33
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kostka – Wideman6:30
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).