Tue, Mar 22, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 112 | 013 | 139 |
| MIN | 13 | 19 | 06 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46MINErik HaulaAssists: Charlie Coyle, Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:13MINMikko KoivuPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:35LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Dwight King, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:34MINErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:40LAKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:58LAKVincent Lecavalier: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35LAKNic Dowd: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:13MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:47LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:01LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKing – Dowd – Toffoli8:43
xG 1.32–0.26 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Kopitar – Lucic14:38
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Brown – Lewis10:41
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Clifford – Andreoff – Shore4:10
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb19:19
xG 1.53–0.36 (81%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:10
xG 0.44–0.05 (91%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Schenn10:29
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Porter – Schroeder6:16
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine10:59
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle9:29
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Jones – Granlund7:01
xG 0.10–1.38 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Dumba7:33
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon19:59
xG 0.04–0.60 (7%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
- Scandella – Brodin16:48
xG 0.31–1.59 (16%)attempts 8–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).