Tue, Mar 22, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 6, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 415 | 110 | 18 | 633 |
| CHI | 09 | 110 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:34DALColton SceviourUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:59DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Colton Sceviour, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 16:01DALPatrick EavesPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 18:43DALVernon FiddlerSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 16:23CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 18:58DALRadek FaksaAssists: Ales Hemsky, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 9:07CHIRichard PanikAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 13:48DALCody EakinENAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.63 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:03CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:28DALBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:19DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51DALPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Faksa10:11
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Ritchie8:09
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Spezza – Eaves – Nichushkin10:31
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin10:45
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Johns16:49
xG 1.06–0.32 (77%)attempts 16–11goals 3–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:16
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Benn – Nemeth11:46
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Teravainen – Panarin6:06
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Desjardins – Shaw8:46
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Toews – Kane5:58
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hossa – Ladd – Toews4:17
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Gustafsson6:02
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk3:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).