Wed, Mar 23, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Ottawa Senators 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 08 | 15 | 123 |
| NYI | 05 | 313 | 05 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:24NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 14:28NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 14:49NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Shane Prince, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 6:21OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ryan Dzingel · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:26OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:43OTTBobby Ryan: Holding2 min
- P1 19:00NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:00OTTScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad3:46
xG 1.23–0.10 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ryan – Dzingel3:54
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dzingel – Lazar3:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gomez – Chiasson – Dzingel2:26
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Ceci14:08
xG 1.51–0.39 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Claesson17:58
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Ceci2:14
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:01
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:47
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome13:44
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Prince9:26
xG 0.24–1.14 (18%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – de Haan15:55
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy2:04
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock11:13
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).