Thu, Mar 24, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 215 | 216 | 436 |
| BOS | 015 | 110 | 010 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:42BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Frank Vatrano, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:51FLAReilly SmithAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:46FLAVincent TrocheckSHGWGAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 10:56FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Steven Kampfer · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:39FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.77 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:35FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 12:25FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:46BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:26FLABrian Campbell: Holding2 min
- P2 4:39BOSBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:45FLAJiri Hudler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:04BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:49BOSFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:09
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Hudler – Purcell – Bjugstad8:51
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg5:39
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:27
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Kulikov11:34
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Kindl – Petrovic11:02
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:33
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Connolly – Acciari3:59
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Spooner – Vatrano4:48
xG 0.14–0.10 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey4:11
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano3:38
xG 0.04–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Seidenberg7:09
xG 0.31–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug4:34
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Seidenberg2:16
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).