Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 08 | 310 | 324 |
| CBJ | 016 | 112 | 116 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:35CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Dalton Prout, Brandon Dubinsky · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 0:52CARVictor RaskAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 2:19CARChris TerryAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 2:30CARElias LindholmGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Noah Hanifin · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 4:03CBJBoone JennerAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.47 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:10CARNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:26CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:26CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22CARElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:22CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:05CARRiley Nash: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:45CBJCam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:45CBJCam Atkinson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:45CARElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Lindholm12:24
xG 1.13–0.88 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Gerbe – Terry – Nash2:36
xG 0.12–0.28 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe3:20
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Sutter5:53
xG 0.07–0.41 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin10:24
xG 1.26–1.06 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Murphy10:31
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Slavin4:18
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Wennberg8:41
xG 1.36–0.14 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Jenner – Saad – Bjorkstrand10:33
xG 2.28–1.28 (64%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson13:21
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Campbell – Chaput – Karlsson8:01
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones15:30
xG 2.39–1.11 (68%)attempts 27–16goals 1–2
- Prout – Savard13:49
xG 1.59–0.69 (70%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef11:08
xG 0.71–0.75 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).