Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 214 | 216 | 01 | 538 |
| TOR | 29 | 210 | 16 | 11 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56ANAJamie McGinnPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:01TORTyler BozakUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 6:55TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:58TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 16:59TORFrank CorradoAssists: Brooks Laich, Ben Smith · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 18:54ANAJamie McGinnPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 19:03ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.37 xG3–4
- P3 5:39ANARyan GarbuttSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 8:17ANABrandon PirriAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 15:37TORConnor BrownPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–5
- OT 0:41TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:22TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:16ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11ANANate Thompson: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39TORMichael Grabner: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:56TORMartin Marincin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:57ANAJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:17ANAJosh Manson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:17TORNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg6:05
xG 0.70–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Garbutt6:00
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Perry – McGinn – Rakell3:32
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Pirri – Ritchie2:14
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm9:45
xG 1.19–0.50 (70%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Holzer – Fowler10:05
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Stoner – Manson2:49
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Hyman – Nylander11:23
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Bozak – Leivo – Brown7:44
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri11:24
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Laich – Greening – Smith8:28
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Rielly15:49
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Corrado – Valiev12:25
xG 0.09–0.64 (12%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick14:29
xG 0.25–1.10 (19%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).