Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 05 | 311 | 329 |
| DET | 111 | 321 | 08 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:46DETRiley SheahanAssists: Brendan Smith, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:36DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 5:48DETRiley SheahanAssists: Brendan Smith, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 17:27DETAnthony ManthaPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–4
- P3 0:47MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 4:16MTLPaul ByronAssists: Darren Dietz, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–4
- P3 7:50MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:53MTLTomas Plekanec: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:10MTLTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:38MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:38DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:38MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:17MTLNathan Beaulieu: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:43MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59MTLStefan Matteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59DETMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk9:48
xG 0.82–0.58 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Brown – Lessio – McCarron3:23
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Danault – Matteau3:23
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Lessio – Danault2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDietz – Hanley11:33
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Markov – Emelin17:31
xG 0.56–0.82 (41%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu12:43
xG 0.17–0.66 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Mantha7:16
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Glendening – Athanasiou5:26
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:56
xG 0.60–0.69 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan8:08
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser16:16
xG 0.97–0.28 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Green – Smith13:19
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Smith2:19
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).