Thu, Mar 24, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 116 | 08 | 233 |
| MIN | 310 | 18 | 211 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21MINZach PariseAssists: Mike Reilly, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 6:07MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:35CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 16:33MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 6:25CGYJakub NakladalAssists: Matt Stajan, Tyler Wotherspoon · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 8:30MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 13:42MINJared SpurgeonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
- P3 16:11MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jason Pominville, Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:27MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:00CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01MINJason Pominville: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:54MINDevan Dubnyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:24CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:16MINMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:50MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:44CGYBrandon Bollig: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 13:59CGYBrandon Bollig: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bouma9:35
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Colborne – Hamilton – Bennett6:06
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Gaudreau – Monahan2:25
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Ferland – Hathaway2:35
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:42
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Brodie – Nakladal4:18
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Nakladal10:32
xG 0.09–0.36 (19%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Jones – Granlund11:34
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Schroeder – Fontaine6:25
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:55
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:59
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 7–21goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Dumba9:44
xG 1.00–0.16 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon15:06
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Scandella – Brodin18:11
xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 5–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).