Thu, Mar 24, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 115 | 05 | 134 |
| WPG | 04 | 110 | 310 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:25LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 18:20WPGAdam LowryAssists: Matt Halischuk, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 0:15WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:54WPGPaul PostmaAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:02WPGDrew StaffordENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:40WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:41LAKKyle Clifford: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:09LAKTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:26LAKDustin Brown: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:38WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Andreoff9:46
xG 0.56–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Toffoli – Pearson9:31
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – Lucic12:17
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Brown – King – Shore9:37
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Schenn11:41
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb17:43
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Martinez15:12
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Burmistrov – Armia11:03
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Copp – Dano – Petan8:50
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Lowry9:10
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:35
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba13:24
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot12:57
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien2:47
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).