Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 415 | 314 | 741 |
| DET | 19 | 010 | 14 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Brad Richards, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:20PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:08PITKris LetangPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:58PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:11PITPhil KesselAssists: Ian Cole, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 5:08DETMike GreenPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 6:44PITEric FehrAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
- P3 8:37PITCarl HagelinAssists: Phil Kessel, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–2
- P3 14:45PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.27 xG7–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:39PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:39DETDanny DeKeyser: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:52PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:02DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:22DETPavel Datsyuk: Interference2 min
- P3 4:41PITNick Bonino: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 11:55PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:55DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:45DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Bonino – Hagelin7:47
xG 0.94–0.11 (90%)attempts 15–2goals 2–0
- Fehr – Bonino – Hagelin2:01
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Bennett3:50
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Kuhnhackl13:59
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Cole4:32
xG 0.97–0.03 (97%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang12:02
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–1goals 2–0
- Cole – Schultz7:38
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Glendening – Athanasiou4:13
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan5:54
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:34
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Larkin2:02
xG 0.01–0.34 (2%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:12
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser12:58
xG 0.11–0.90 (11%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
- Green – Smith13:02
xG 0.36–1.57 (19%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).