Sat, Mar 26, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 29 | 13 | 417 |
| SJS | 012 | 011 | 213 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:28DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jordie Benn, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:22DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Spezza, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 14:19DALPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 3:44SJSJoel WardSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 5:48SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:52DALJamie BennENAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:38SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:55DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:05DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:05SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:36SJSMicheal Haley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:36DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:40DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:41SJSJoe Pavelski: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:35DALStephen Johns: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:56DALJohn Klingberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:56SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:17DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:08SJSDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:09DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:24DALMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin8:16
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Faksa6:49
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour6:42
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin8:45
xG 0.07–0.65 (10%)attempts 2–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Klingberg7:10
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Benn4:41
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Oduya – Johns11:54
xG 0.04–0.71 (5%)attempts 3–20goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl10:31
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney7:43
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Couture – Karlsson6:43
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Spaling – Haley – Wingels5:48
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns10:52
xG 1.10–0.11 (91%)attempts 27–3goals 1–0
- Polak – Dillon12:33
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Braun – DeMelo10:16
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).