Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 211 | 113 | 333 |
| TOR | 111 | 05 | 010 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:55TORBen SmithAssists: Colin Greening, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 2:52BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Matt Beleskey, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 6:29BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: David Krejci, Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:10BOSMatt BeleskeyENAssists: Loui Eriksson, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:39BOSMatt Beleskey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:39TORConnor Carrick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:55TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:55BOSDavid Pastrnak: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:22BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P3 0:11TORMartin Marincin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:23TORPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:10TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10BOSKevan Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:10TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand11:42
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ferraro – Acciari4:40
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak13:47
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Spooner – Vatrano6:37
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Morrow11:03
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller14:27
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug15:26
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Hyman – Nylander12:45
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Laich – Greening – Smith7:17
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Boyes – Bozak – Brown10:36
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Grabner – Kadri10:37
xG 0.14–0.40 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorrado – Valiev11:25
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick16:59
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly14:01
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).