Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 015 | 313 | 14 | 439 |
| OTT | 110 | 212 | 08 | 03 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:12OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:39OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:28OTTChris NeilAssists: Nick Paul · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 5:43ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 11:31ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Cam Fowler, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:02ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 2:38ANARickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:37ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:34ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:34OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:02ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:05OTTCurtis Lazar: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:05ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:47OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:33ANACorey Perry: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:34ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:43OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min
- OT 1:40OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Garbutt – Ritchie7:48
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – McGinn4:04
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Stewart – Pirri6:50
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:42
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Lindholm3:50
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Stoner – Theodore6:09
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Stoner – Lindholm4:16
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Dzingel – Lazar8:32
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau9:59
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad9:36
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Neil – Puempel – Paul6:28
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson16:12
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Kostka – Wideman9:55
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Methot – Ceci15:35
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).