Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
St. Louis Blues 4, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 316 | 15 | 429 |
| WSH | 010 | 013 | 09 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45STLKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: David Backes, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:05STLColton ParaykoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 12:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 17:45STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:53STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:13STLPaul Stastny: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:33STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:16STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:16WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Jaskin9:56
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:20
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:14
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri12:16
xG 0.17–0.92 (16%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko14:06
xG 1.27–0.34 (79%)attempts 23–12goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Lindbohm12:23
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson17:44
xG 0.43–1.28 (25%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:49
xG 1.11–0.59 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson3:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:51
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Galiev2:57
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Orlov14:36
xG 0.85–0.80 (51%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Orlov – Schmidt2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt12:30
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).