Sat, Mar 26, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 07 | 111 | 13 | 431 |
| CAR | 06 | 319 | 09 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:55NYINikolay KuleminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 0:59CARVictor RaskAssists: Chris Terry, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 5:34CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ron Hainsey, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 8:01CARJay McClementAssists: Ryan Murphy · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 0:30NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:46NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:06CARNoah Hanifin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:23NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23CARChris Terry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Prince9:54
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:41
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin9:33
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome11:59
xG 0.70–1.41 (33%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – de Haan14:43
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey13:03
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy21:07
xG 0.96–1.75 (35%)attempts 17–26goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Lindholm12:33
xG 0.89–0.45 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Nash – Skinner – Rask4:15
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask10:27
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Malone – Sutter4:19
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin17:15
xG 1.18–0.67 (64%)attempts 27–14goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin16:36
xG 1.07–0.77 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Murphy15:26
xG 0.53–0.44 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).