Sat, Mar 26, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 27 | 211 | 427 |
| CGY | 09 | 112 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:51CHIAndrew LaddUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 12:47CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Freddie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:11CHIAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Michal Rozsival, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 18:48CHIAndrew LaddENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–1
- P3 19:48CHITeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Patrick Kane, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:10CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:41CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21CGYDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01CHIAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:02CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Panik – Teravainen8:18
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw9:58
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:15
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Hossa – Ladd – Toews11:03
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk14:03
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk2:41
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson17:57
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Hathaway – Bennett11:04
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Gaudreau – Monahan10:29
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma12:52
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Ferland6:07
xG 0.13–0.87 (13%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Hamilton15:23
xG 0.97–0.57 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Jokipakka – Nakladal11:06
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton2:00
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).