Sat, Mar 26, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 07 | 29 | 429 |
| LAK | 212 | 315 | 16 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Brayden McNabb, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 0:38EDMJordan EberleAssists: Jordan Oesterle · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:53EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 10:20LAKJeff CarterAssists: Milan Lucic, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 3:11LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 13:07LAKAndy AndreoffAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–4
- P2 17:26LAKTrevor LewisSHGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 9:22EDMPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:50EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Clendening · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–5
- P3 19:27LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:06LAKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 13:59LAKTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:00EDMMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P2 9:38LAKMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:38EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:04LAKRob Scuderi: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:24LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid10:35
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Hendricks – Cracknell – Kassian8:27
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Yakupov – Draisaitl11:26
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Pakarinen9:12
xG 0.01–0.68 (2%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Fayne12:21
xG 0.88–0.91 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–3
- Clendening – Nurse14:58
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Sekera – Nurse2:57
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli9:59
xG 1.31–0.56 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 2–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Pearson11:18
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Clifford – Dowd – Andreoff6:43
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – King8:10
xG 0.02–0.97 (2%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Schenn13:01
xG 1.18–0.57 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Doughty – McNabb17:49
xG 1.24–0.75 (62%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:12
xG 0.93–0.98 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).