Sun, Mar 27, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 110 | 09 | 12 | 332 |
| NYR | 113 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19NYREric StaalAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:49PITMatt CullenAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 2:07NYREric StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:36PITPhil KesselAssists: Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 4:30PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:19PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:52PITNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:54NYRDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:58NYRDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist16:49
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Fehr – Bennett – Sheary4:13
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin11:59
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl3:09
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Letang18:54
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole3:11
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz8:48
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Stalberg7:41
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Hayes – Fast12:20
xG 1.11–0.99 (53%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
- Stepan – Zuccarello – Miller12:59
xG 0.34–0.37 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Kreider12:26
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal12:18
xG 1.14–0.68 (63%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi3:29
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi15:15
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).