Mon, Mar 28, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 4, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 312 | 010 | 15 | 427 |
| NSH | 112 | 07 | 216 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36COLBlake ComeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:10COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 11:40COLJack SkilleAssists: Cody McLeod, Andrew Agozzino · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–0
- P1 17:08NSHCraig SmithAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 12:13COLShawn MatthiasGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 14:58NSHColton SissonsAssists: Miikka Salomaki, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 15:22NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:40NSHBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:40COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:07COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:46COLJack Skille: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:46NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:45NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:19COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Grigorenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Landeskog13:22
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- McLeod – Skille – Agozzino5:30
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Matthias – Boedker – Grigorenko13:24
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen8:06
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Zadorov17:10
xG 1.03–0.49 (68%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie13:06
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 3–1
- Beauchemin – Johnson2:40
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:58
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen4:38
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Salomaki – Sissons2:56
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Salomaki3:12
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Granberg9:45
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi19:48
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 20–17goals 2–2
- Jackman – Ellis11:15
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).