Mon, Mar 28, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 19 | 07 | 225 |
| EDM | 010 | 09 | 19 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02ANACorey PerryAssists: Jamie McGinn, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 12:48ANABrandon PirriGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 11:40EDMNail YakupovAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:54ANARyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:56EDMAdam Cracknell: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:04ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:56EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P3 8:43EDMAnton Lander: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:50EDMPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:25
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Stewart – Pirri8:45
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Perry – McGinn – Rakell7:23
xG 0.15–0.22 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Thompson – Garbutt6:40
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:20
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Stoner – Vatanen11:39
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Theodore12:58
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Yakupov – Draisaitl10:45
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Kassian6:38
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Cracknell – Lander7:55
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Eberle – McDavid12:10
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne12:07
xG 0.54–0.21 (73%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Nurse4:37
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Nurse4:06
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).