Tue, Mar 29, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Boston Bruins 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 113 | 016 | 140 |
| NJD | 18 | 04 | 13 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Reid Boucher, David Warsofsky · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:28BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Zdeno Chara, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:05NJDReid BoucherPPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:39NJDBobby Farnham: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:02BOSLee Stempniak: Holding2 min
- P1 16:04BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:33BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09BOSAdam McQuaid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:09NJDSeth Helgeson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:28NJDAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:58BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:49BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand10:31
xG 0.87–0.05 (95%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Connolly – Acciari2:40
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Pastrnak – Acciari2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug12:22
xG 1.16–0.11 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Krug2:37
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Morrow2:14
xG 0.09–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Gionta – Farnham7:50
xG 0.19–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sislo – Pietila – Kalinin9:14
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Henrique – Smith-Pelly – Blandisi11:32
xG 0.23–0.53 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher13:16
xG 0.11–0.98 (10%)attempts 3–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHelgeson – Severson2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson12:06
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Helgeson9:09
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).