Tue, Mar 29, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 111 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 127 |
| NYI | 06 | 011 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:31CARDerek RyanAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 12:08NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 2. CAR Derek Ryan stopped
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 4. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. CAR Joakim Nordstrom stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:34CARPatrick Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 18:15NYIThomas Hickey: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:19CARPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:06CARBrett Pesce: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm12:54
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Brown – Ryan9:09
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – Sutter5:52
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Rask16:20
xG 0.19–0.96 (16%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Slavin16:40
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Jordan – Faulk16:09
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin16:26
xG 0.44–1.04 (30%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Prince2:39
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome8:28
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin7:36
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:57
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy21:03
xG 1.17–0.55 (68%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan17:16
xG 0.70–0.48 (60%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Strait – Hickey11:21
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).