Tue, Mar 29, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 06 | 010 | 121 |
| STL | 111 | 213 | 03 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:12COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:30STLTroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:28STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:00COLCarl Soderberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:42COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:14STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:14COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:49STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Matthias – Boedker – Grigorenko10:42
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- McLeod – Skille – Agozzino7:22
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:13
xG 0.01–0.14 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen10:40
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Zadorov15:34
xG 0.14–0.15 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:44
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Bigras10:55
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Berglund11:50
xG 0.56–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri9:05
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:38
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:41
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko14:54
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson16:23
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Lindbohm11:49
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).