Tue, Mar 29, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 07 | 07 | 119 |
| MIN | 18 | 06 | 34 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37MINJarret StollAssists: Mike Reilly, Jordan Schroeder · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:55CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Jonathan Toews, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 4:07MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:03MINErik HaulaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:41MINNino NiederreiterENAssists: Mikael Granlund, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:15CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:27CHIDuncan Keith: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 2:26CHITomas Fleischmann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:39CHIAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:39MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:42MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P3 14:56MINErik Haula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Hossa – Ladd – Toews8:39
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Panik – Rasmussen6:16
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Kane – Teravainen – Panarin9:36
xG 0.31–0.32 (50%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw5:26
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – van Riemsdyk10:38
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Svedberg – van Riemsdyk2:28
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:53
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter8:27
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle9:07
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Stoll – Schroeder – Fontaine5:37
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund4:59
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:48
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Reilly – Dumba7:18
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Scandella – Brodin14:29
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).