Wed, Mar 30, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 07 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 130 |
| PHI | 013 | 010 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:28WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 14:32PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. PHI Nick Cousins scored
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. PHI Sam Gagner scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:45WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00PHINick Schultz: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:36PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:36WSHMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:59PHIRyan White: Interference2 min
- P3 11:18WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:18PHISam Gagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:57WSHMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:32PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:56PHISean Couturier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:56WSHBraden Holtby: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Oshie – Beagle9:10
xG 0.79–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:02
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:40
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Wilson7:05
xG 0.05–0.63 (7%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov11:00
xG 0.53–0.11 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:29
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson4:37
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Read – Cousins7:52
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl11:38
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:31
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn12:55
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz15:32
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas13:47
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:48
xG 0.03–0.99 (3%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).